PRIORITIES or VIAGRA & THE INTERNET
By Mel Copen October 23, 1999
© Mel Copen, October, 1999
When future historians look at the 20th century, television will be identified as one of the most important influences that shaped human thought and action. But its influence is likely to pale by comparison with the impact that the computer and the Internet will have on mankind in the 21st – not only on business and communication, but on the way we live and even on the social systems within which we function.
Business Week reports that fourteen percent of the US population was online in 1996, Three years later those digits have been transposed and are now at 41%, an average compound growth rate of 43% per year.
Although the US is currently by far the dominant user, the incredible growth of computer and Internet usage is a worldwide phenomenon. China, which had less than a million people on the Internet in 1997, will have more than 27 million by 2001; and Japan grew from 1.5 million in 1996 to 17 million today. The Computer Industry Almanac projects 327 million users on the Internet by the end of next year. Last year, 10 million people were on line in Germany and more than 8 million in the UK. Half a million people are connected in the Slovak Republic, and 15 thousand are already linked to the Internet in Vietnam. India, with 1.5 million users at present, is starting to show explosive growth.
Today, much of the Internet news is directed towards the commercial potential of E-commerce and the enormous market capitalization of the Internet stocks – the “Amazons”, “Yahoos” and “Ebays” of the world. But there are other things happening that are both interesting and offer portents for the future. Lets look at a few.
The focus on E-commerce has largely been on the pace of its growth and the details of making it work. But another aspect of this development can be seen in recent news reports of Viagra’s approval for use in Japan. The “OK” came through in record time, counted in months in contrast with the years it took for similar approval of birth control pills. Many attributed this to Japan’s historical “male chauvinism” – what the men wanted, the men got, whereas the women had to wait. However, the reality is somewhat different. Viagra hit the market during the Internet explosion and Japanese customers were able to order the product on line, from foreign suppliers. Although it had not been approved, it was neither a narcotic nor other banned substance, and it started to flow into the country. The government found that it had lost control (and local distributors were losing profits as well). Approvals for both products came quickly.
The point is that many of our systems and controls will have to be very different in the future, whether they relate to drug approval, ethical practices or financial transfers. The Internet transcends government, and places much of the burden for appropriate usage on the user.
Social systems are already being affected around the world. Today, wherever telephone lines exist, it is possible for communications to flow, simultaneously to thousands or millions of people around the globe. That has been true for many years, but today, with a computer in the home, anyone can do it, not just governments and large corporations. As the world was mesmerized watching CNN bring the Gulf War into living rooms, today the Internet provides an instantaneous window on not only what is going on, but on people’s thoughts and ideas. “Spaceship” earth is becoming a reality. Ideas can flow and dissidents, both positive and negative, can find an open forum. And while repression becomes much more difficult, the possibilities for abuse also increase correspondingly.
Mass communication also means that many people receive similar information and analyses at the same time. As a result, they often move in the same direction, even though a concerted effort is not readily apparent to any one. Much of modern economics is based on statistical assumptions. Different people, looking at different data with different perspectives, behave differently. The value comes from predicting the trends –trends that normally tend to be gradual. Today, as large numbers of people receive the same input, gradual trends are being replaced by large and rapid swings. We may need to reexamine much of our economic thinking.
But the incredible amount of data available over the Internet also provides confusion. Anyone can add to it. Research a subject and you are just as likely to encounter an essay written by a 7th grader and full of factual and grammatical errors as a carefully studied document prepared by an impeccable source. How does one tell the difference? Just the shear volume of data can be overwhelming – too much data, especially where some of it is in conflict, can be worse than no data. We need mechanisms to deal with this while, at the same time, preserving freedom of expression.
Two years ago an organization that surveyed a substantial group of junior high school children found that 30% identified their “best friend” as someone they had never met – an Internet pen-pal. Adults as well as children are being “absorbed” by the medium. What does this mean for the nature of future human interaction?
Information technology is changing at a pace unlike anything the world has ever seen. Many of the technologies of the past were logical extensions of what we were already doing – they made it quicker or easier. However, the computer, combined with communications technology, has created entirely new ways of visualizing and interacting with the world. It is changing the “human equation” – the way we relate to each other and to the world around us.
But the emphasis is being placed primarily on the continuous introduction of new enhancements to the technology. Only a fraction of the effort is focused on the human interface – how we learn, how we develop new systems to utilize what we create, and how we prepare for the transformations that will occur. Stability is a secondary factor, if even that. New technological advances are introduced before the old have been perfected and well before they become comfortable for many. Today we turn on a radio or television set. No problem. It works. We don’t give it a second thought. Not so with the computer or the Internet interface we are using. Yet, despite the frustrations, we keep chasing new developments before the old are in place.
In summary, we are dealing with capabilities that are likely to have the most profound affects on humanity of any technology to date (with the possible exception of genetic engineering). Yet the importance of understanding and “managing the impact on the “human equation” seems to have masked by the euphoria with our new tools. (Did cavemen dwell on this issue at the time fire was harnessed or the wheel came into existence?) Clearly, we need to do more to better understand the impact, to develop systems to deal with what we are creating, and to begin to think about the new world relationships and social structures that this will create. This may now be the most critical challenge that we face.
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